Liberal NIMBYs Are Helping Red States

California, Oregon and New York are just five years away from losing 10 congressional seats and electoral college votes to Republican states.

The loss in political power on the left image is directly caused by the differences in housing production on the right graph.

It’s not a quirky local issue anymore. The housing crisis in Blue State America warrants intervention by state and national-level Democrats because their pitiful housing production will cost the Democrats the Congress and the Electoral College.

Congressional seats are appointed to each state per decennial Census as a national percentage share of 435 seats. For example, after Census 2020 was counted, California represented 12% of the national population so California has 52 representatives in Congress. The Electoral College allocates points off the number of congresspeople a state has, plus two more electoral votes for each state. California for decades has had the largest share of Congressional representation and Electoral Votes.

But at this projected rate of population growth, California will be passed by Texas in twenty years. More immediately, Democrats are likely to be damaged by California, Oregon and New York’s decline in power in the 2032 presidential election.

California and New York’s population was relatively stagnant in growth since the implementation of urban housing growth limits in the middle-late 20th century. Starting in the mid-2010s, the California housing shortage got so severe that it began shedding its population. Contrary to right-wing media claims, the out-migration of people from blue states is primarily middle-class and low-income families, not well-off people sick of income taxes or homelessness.

The housing crisis already cost California one Congressional seat and electoral college vote after the Census 2020 and for the first time in U.S. history. If current polling averages hold, Kamala Harris is likely to win the election with exactly 270 votes. This assumes she doesn’t win Nevada and Arizona whose electoral votes have been boosted by Californian’s out-migration into the suburbs of Clark and Maricopa counties. If California had maintained healthy population growth, it would at least be one vote more over the threshold for Kamala Harris.

If similar levels of national polarization hold and California loses four seats — as is currently projected by our anemic population growth — then a future Democrat would lose the race for president. Moreover, California and New York are now losing their representation and interests in Congress, granting Republicans even more power in Washington.

This has been the trajectory of Blue states for a while, now. Liberals who pride themselves on being progressive, build woefully inadequate levels of housing, while red states — for all their many issues — allow developers to lap coastal blue states in home construction. Since 2000, Texas and Florida have been building double, even triple, the homes California and New York have and that trend has continued into the 2020s. Middle-class people from California and New York are priced out to Texas, Florida, the South, and the Southwest because vacancy rates are higher and homes are cheaper.

The homes red states build aren’t sustainable since it’s mostly car-centric sprawl. Arizona is building new suburbs that can’t even get water reliably provided to them. Living in the South generally requires building homes with expensive and energy-intensive cooling systems. None of these are problems in cooler, coastal climates but blue states find it controversial to allow denser homes near transit and jobs. Ergo, farmland and flood plains in Texas get wiped out by carbon-intensive freeways and tract houses for California’s next generation.

Some have attempted to spin this as a positive for the Democratic party because the displacement of liberal families into affordable red states might swing those states blue. Sure, the coastal states are no longer affordable safe havens for the marginalized but at least forcing the least well-off into oppressive red states will make them blue, I guess. However, there have been no real indicators that this is true. Texas political analysts acknowledge that the transplants tend to lean more conservative than native-born Texans or Texans who migrated from other states. There isn’t zero truth in the idea, but out-migration from California isn’t the main force powering a blue Texas trajectory. The greatest predictor of Democratic strength beyond having a college education or being Black is living in an urban area. Because these red states sprawl so significantly, they’re creating suburbs that are politically up for grabs.

I’ve talked to local liberals about this issue but they view this as a positive trend because New York and California is “too crowded.” But the crowding is arbitrary: 96% of residential land in California is zoned to prohibit housing for more than one family on a parcel. Of the 4% that allows for multi-family homes, only a tiny fraction is zoned to a level that is feasible to develop. California has incentivized new home construction by passing Accessory Dwelling Units and Duplexes but these laws have mostly allowed local jurisdictions to implement regulatory roadblocks. New York state has been pretty weak on any housing laws and discourse-wise they appear to be where California was eight years ago.

The American Community Survey reports estimate population growth inbetween decennial Census counts and they have been known for under-estimating population growth. Even still, some political damage is certain. It’s not a question of whether California and New York will at least maintain their Electoral College votes and Congress seats. What we’re gambling on is how much representation will California and New York lose to Red States in 2030 — one seat and vote or up to four?

Perhaps losing a national election because it’s the policy of Democratic-states to be hostile to diversity and population growth necessary to foster political strength will be the final jolt. However, I fear it’s too late. Absent radical pro-housing reforms in Blue state legislatures, Blue America will not usher in a housing boom that’ll compensate 20 years of Southern population growth.

We’ll find out the consequences in just five years.

A very likely scenario for November 2024: Kamala Harris barely wins. One less electoral vote and its a tie — which will go to Republicans. In five years, if all else is the same, this may cost the Democrats the 2032 election.