It is _possible_ that the ongoing growth of the Atlanta and Charlotte metros will lead to those states becoming more lean-Dem (like Virginia seems to be now) rather than being states that are difficult stretch goals. But I wouldn't want to count on that. Definitely this trend is going to increase the electoral college tilt.
On the other hand, if we win a statewide race in Texas (insert prayer, and donation link, for Colin Allred: https://colinallred.com/ ) the Republicans may suddenly decide that maybe the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact isn't such a bad idea.
As of May 2024, there were 119,056 active NC voters who listed California as their state of birth. In two-way support measurements. 32,306 were registered as Democrats, 37,282 as Republicans and 47,750 as Independents, giving the GOP a two way support advantage of 4%.
So it seems like, in NC at least, the people leaving CA seem to be more likely to vote (or at least register as) Republican, which makes the situation much worse than if it were merely CA losing representation.
Here's the two-way support for other birthplace-states with over 100,000 active voters now living in NC:
Ohio: +10% GOP
PA and Florida: + 7% GOP
Virginia +5% GOP
California and Georgia: +4% GOP
NJ: +7% Democrats
NY: +9% Democrats
South Carolina +10% Democrats
and North Carolina itself: +0.3% to Democrats
So it seems like whatever factors are pushing / pulling voters from NJ / NY, those voters are retaining their political affiliations, while in California it's disproportionately drawing Republicans.
California only feels crowded because we spend so much space on low efficiency car infrastructure. People are so car brained they just can't see it.
It is _possible_ that the ongoing growth of the Atlanta and Charlotte metros will lead to those states becoming more lean-Dem (like Virginia seems to be now) rather than being states that are difficult stretch goals. But I wouldn't want to count on that. Definitely this trend is going to increase the electoral college tilt.
On the other hand, if we win a statewide race in Texas (insert prayer, and donation link, for Colin Allred: https://colinallred.com/ ) the Republicans may suddenly decide that maybe the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact isn't such a bad idea.
Fwiw I crunched the numbers from North Carolina's actual voter registration data, available for download here: https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/voter-registration-data
As of May 2024, there were 119,056 active NC voters who listed California as their state of birth. In two-way support measurements. 32,306 were registered as Democrats, 37,282 as Republicans and 47,750 as Independents, giving the GOP a two way support advantage of 4%.
So it seems like, in NC at least, the people leaving CA seem to be more likely to vote (or at least register as) Republican, which makes the situation much worse than if it were merely CA losing representation.
Here's the two-way support for other birthplace-states with over 100,000 active voters now living in NC:
Ohio: +10% GOP
PA and Florida: + 7% GOP
Virginia +5% GOP
California and Georgia: +4% GOP
NJ: +7% Democrats
NY: +9% Democrats
South Carolina +10% Democrats
and North Carolina itself: +0.3% to Democrats
So it seems like whatever factors are pushing / pulling voters from NJ / NY, those voters are retaining their political affiliations, while in California it's disproportionately drawing Republicans.